ANALYSIS: Assessing climate policy impacts in Poland’s agriculture – Options overview

We are pleased to present the result our new analysis prepared as part of the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project entitled “Assessing climate policy impacts in Poland’s agriculture. Options overview” and was prepared on EPICA model developed within our project. Analysis of impacts of climate policy measures on agriculture in Poland has been made on optimization model EPICA, developed within the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project, that enables assessment of various policy measures in terms of emission, production level and income in the sector.

 

 

In the analysis we have explored such attitudes as (1) induced general reduction targets for agricultural GHG emissions and capturing the following farm responses in production structure, (2) introduction of taxation in regard to application of nitrogen-based fertilisers in crop production, and (3) introduction of price on emissions from agriculture. Policy options have been implemented in seven analytical scenarios confronted with a reference scenario, consistent with assumptions applied in analyses of other sectors made within the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project (CGE model, energy and transport).

 

Results show that the relation of emissions to farm income seems to be a crucial indicator. Assuming the current structure and technologies utilised in agriculture, increasing climate policy ambition level leads to significant decrease in farmers income and production level, price increase, and disproportionate lower emission reduction. Thus, achieving climate neutrality addressed in the European Green Deal, needs much more than strengthening traditional climate policy measures in agriculture. Expected results require wider, deeper and more efficient changes in technologies.

 

Please see below some of key results and conclusions from the analysis:

 

  • Forcing the GHG reduction by 20% leads to decline in value of produced market commodities by ca. 9.5% and farm income by ca. 14%. Decline in production following the forced GHG emission reduction to the greatest extent affects the production of cattle for beef (by 35%), milk (by 16%), maize for grain (by 21%), and sugar beets (by 21%).

 

  • Assuming implementation of the EUR 20 emission tax, the potential emission costs would rise to PLN 2.78 bn at country scale, which would mean an expense of PLN 1,960 per average farm and PLN 195 per ha of Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA). These are close to nearly 10% of average farm income earned in Poland’s agricultural sector.

 

  • Introducing the N-tax and accordingly rising the N-fertiliser prices by 20% (the N20 scenario) leads to increase of fertiliser costs by 3.95% and 10.3% decline in their use, while the model shows a reduction of GHG emissions from agriculture by 1.6% only and decrease of farm income by 5.5%.

 

Agriculture model EPICA is being developed, so the scope of analysis and outputs presented in this report will be expanded and published in next publications by Centre for Climate and Energy Analyses (CAKE).

 

Full analysis in english language:

  Assessing climate policy impacts in Poland’s agriculture. Options overview.pdf (1.2 MiB, 215 hits)

Summary in polish language:

  Ocena wpływu polityki klimatycznej na sektor polskich gospodarstw rolnych. Podsumowanie.pdf (933.7 KiB, 146 hits)

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